First and foremost, I would like to apologize for a very
cliched title. But, somehow, this does capture attention; at least for a first
few lines.
Talk to any classical economist and you will undoubtedly
hear of rational being in the first couple of sentences he/she speaks. This
concept of rational being was first propounded by Adam Smith, widely regarded
as the father of modern economics way back in 1776. According to this concept,
humans behave in a perfectly rational manner wherein they always strive to
maximize their utility. This was the most fundamental axiom on which economic
theories were based for almost two centuries. And it is somewhat fascinating to
note that rationality was taken as an assumption for such a long time without
anyone bothering to actually treat it as a variable while developing theories.
This finally changed when two brilliant guys, Daniel
Kahneman and Amos Tversky put rationality to test and came out with surprising
results. Their research married economics and psychology which came to be known
as behavioral economics as a couple. This was late 1970s. Advancements in
behavioral economics provided a whole new dimension to marketing, advertising,
HR management, public relations, designing and several other segments.
This is a new and exciting science and though, it has taken
the economic research world by rage, India happens to be largely insulated from
this knowledge. Yes, it has made inroads in industry applications but research
wise, country is still in very nascent stages.
OK, this is getting a bit textbook pattern. This is a
science best learned best learned by practical experiments. So, let’s dive into
knowledge.
THE MUMBAI LOCAL
EXPERIENCE:
Everyone’s familiar with overwhelming crowd of Mumbai’s notorious
local trains. But if you have traveled in them (Yes, you can. It’s easier than
climbing Everest), you will notice an interesting behavior. First, let me give
a little background. There are two classes in local trains – first and second.
Only difference between the two is there are cushioned seats in the first class
and plastic ones in the second. Dimensions, number of fans, ventilation and all
other things are the same. Except for the fare. First class tickets are almost
10 times costly than the second class ones for the same distance. The seats are
designed to accommodate 3 adults but can squeeze in 4. As you can expect, four
chaps do cram up on seats in second-class compartments. But even during
super-dense peak hours, you won’t see 4 people on a seat in the first class
compartment.
Now, one might argue that this is because of significantly higher fares people pay to travel in first class. But consider that all the people in a particular coach or class have paid the same fare. So, a fourth guy might turn up and say to the seated passengers, “Don’t give me your shit about how much you paid to get into the first class. I have paid the same. So move your ass and give me some space!” But this does not happen in first class. Anytime.
The reason for this behavior lies in the fact that first
class passengers are highest paying guys on the train. This gives an elitist
complex to the people. They feel they should conduct themselves in a more
civilized manner. To get a better perspective of the feeling, consider Indians
following traffic rules when they visit developed nations and not giving a
rat’s ass back home. Or refraining from spitting in a mall while all other
public spaces are painted betel red.
So, now one might wonder what would happen if the railways
come up with a new class? Say, the super first class? It’s way more comfortable,
has air-conditioning and always smells fresh in the humid city weather. And not
surprisingly, fare’s almost double the fare of a first class. What would happen
to the behavior of first class passengers? And more importantly, what would
happen to the number of first class passengers?
Given the reason of elitist complex, it won’t be very difficult for many to guess the number of people on a seat in the first class coach. Yes it should be 4. And now shifting focus to the numbers. A very rational argument would be number of passengers in first class compartment would go down. This would because with the super first class opening up, passengers with a higher propensity to spend would move away for better facilities. And as second class passengers would have never spent on a first class ticket, they would definitely not do so after the super first class becomes operational. That’s classical economics for you – rational and convincing. Sadly, that’s not how people behave. We have inherent biases (technically heuristics) that clouds textbook rationality.
Let’s consider a situation before actually addressing this
issue. You are on a first date at this fancy restaurant and your date is really
confused about her wine. What would be your suggestion? You are uncertain about
your future prospects with your date and the first rational thought would be to
order the cheapest one. But at the same time you don’t want to look as a cheap
steak and you too end up in a dilemma. And then you find a middle path and
suggest a medium priced wine.
Extending the same behavior in local trains. Again, your
reputation is under purview by the large number of people who see you getting
into the train. Also, a factor of social confidence crops up which was rather
absent in the date scenario. You again start thinking on similar lines. It would
be outrageous to spend so much on the super-first class. But I am also not so
poor that I travel in the cheapest coaches. I should definitely buy a first
class ticket. Thus, overall number of passengers in first class compartments
would increase. This line of thought is used in a variety of businesses and
unknowingly, we succumb to our heuristics to make an irrational decision. A
very popular application of this phenomenon is in designing of menus. Such
menus would have items with largest profit margin as the second most expensive
item. And not surprisingly, they would also be the best selling items!
Human brain is plagued with several such biases that lead us
to making choices that might not be in our best interest. Many breakthroughs
have been made in uncovering these faulty perceptions by some fantastic experiments
conducted by eminent cognitive scientists. This article has convincingly (?)
covered just one of those biases. If I have succeeded even partially in
flashing up your interest in this fascinating science, I would recommend books
by Dan Ariely and Tim Harford. They are a treat to read!
Note: I wrote this article almost 8 months back for my college magazine. But, the coordinator resigned and so did the idea of publishing this post. Also, considering the
unfeasibility of the local train experiment, all the arguments I have presented
are based and/or directly inspired on published research conducted by recognized cognitive scientists. All the observations regarding passenger behavior are based on regular travels in local trains for over 20 years
coupled with discussions with several ‘local’ friends. A deviation was pointed
out by my friend Apeksha that fourth seat syndrome does exist in ladies first
class compartments. So, it would be considerable to exclude them from this
hypothesis.